New OrleansSaints

The roof, first, because it always is

11 indoor games of 17, 7 of 32. An indoor home field is a compounding advantage that schedule-strength models flatten away: they price the opponent and not the building, and a club that plays two thirds of its season without wind or cold is running a different offense from the one the projection assumes.

This page counts the roof and does not price it, which is at least honest about the gap. Take it as the largest unmeasured thing on this club's side of the ledger, and then take the third-easiest schedule in football, which the page does measure, and note that the two compound rather than adding.

Eighteen rated players and where they sit

The most rated players of any club in the league, against an average of 14.3. The seven that start: quarterback 72.6, first back 93.3, second back 39.7, first receiver 96.1, second receiver 79.3, tight end 71.9, flex 46.1.

Chris Olave at 96.1, 26 of 457, and Jordyn Tyson at 79.3 behind him. Two receivers inside the top 100 and a lead back at 93.3. This roster used to rank fourth in football on a measurement that added up every rated player it had, and eighteen of anything will win that contest. It ranks 18 on a measurement that asks who starts, which is the more useful question and a less flattering one.

I think depth at running back is worth more than a single expensive one, and this club has 93.3 and 39.7 at the two backfield slots. The weighting disagrees with me: the second-back slot is 7% and the first is 13%, nearly two to one. I hold my view and I concede the page does not.

The quarterback, and the input I distrust

Tyler Shough rates 72.6, 115 of 457, and the slot carries 28% of the club figure. The scheme profile's quarterback input reads 0.62 and pass efficiency reads 0.66.

I am sceptical of quarterback-rating inputs as a description of an offense's actual ceiling, because they describe a situation and get read as a description of a man. What is not in dispute is the weight: a slot at 72.6 carrying 28% is most of the distance between this club and the top ten, and no amount of depth at the other six positions closes it.

The claim, and the grievance put down

The defense corroborates more than the offense does. Rush defense 2 of 32, pass defense 12, forward composite 17. Team Power reads 76, 17 of 32, which sits almost exactly where the roster figure does, and two measurements that share no inputs agreeing to within a place is worth more than either of them alone.

The line ranks 21 of 32 and rush efficiency reads 0.62, which is the weakest thing on the offensive side and is the reason the backfield depth has not shown up as production. The value-weighted age is 26.1, 17 of 32, and the bye is week 8.

So: the second-best run defense in football, eleven indoor games, the third-softest schedule in the league, and a middling skill group with real depth and one thin position. That is a division club and a nuisance in January, and this market is unusually good at writing about a season like that without writing off the club. Everything else this city has to say about officiating can keep for another page.