Tampa BayBuccaneers

The current depth chart, which is the only thing worth reading

Quarterback 69.2. First back 90.7, 53 of 457. Second back 82.2, 89. First receiver 91.6. Second receiver 66.7. Tight end 50.6. Flex 61.9.

Two backs above eighty-one is the unusual thing on this page. Almost every club on this site has a second-back slot in the twenties or teens; this one has a starter there. It buys less than it should, because the second-back slot carries 7% of the club figure and that is the smallest weight of the seven, but it is a real asset and it is the reason an injury at the position costs this club nothing.

The receiver distribution, which I would take again

Emeka Egbuka at 91.6, then Jalen McMillan at 61.9 and Chris Godwin Jr. at 66.7. A clear first option and two real ones behind him, in a spread scheme at a 0.54 pass rate with tempo at 1.03 against a league average of one.

I believe a receiver-concentrated distribution is the most repeatable kind and I prefer it to a balanced one, because the concentration survives a bad week and a committee does not. This room is concentrated at the top and deep behind it, which is the shape I would build if anyone asked, and it is worth saying that the club figure of 73.3 does not reward the shape so much as the ratings.

The two positions holding the number down

The quarterback slot rates 69.2, 129 of 457, at 28% of the figure. The tight end slot rates 50.6 at 13%, with the profile calling tight-end usage low.

Those two are 41% of the club figure between them and neither is above sixty-nine. The scheme profile's quarterback input reads 0.76, which is a good deal kinder than the player rating, and I am not going to resolve that disagreement by picking the one I prefer. I am sceptical of continuity arguments in general, having watched this roster turn over completely and get better, so I am not going to lean on familiarity either.

The target, which is a division

Run defense 0.88 at 5 of 32, pass defense 17, forward composite 0.69 at 8. That is a top-eight projected defense and a top-five run unit, and it is why Team Power sits five places above the roster figure. The line ranks 17 of 32.

Value-weighted age 25.8, 13 of 32 counting youngest first, with 53.7% of the rated talent under twenty-five. Strength of schedule 10 of 32 counting easiest first, which is a soft slate, and the bye in week 10.

A division title is a far more useful target than a conference one and I write as though it is. The case: a top-eight projected defense, the tenth-easiest schedule in football, half the rated talent under twenty-five, and a backfield nobody else in this division can match for depth. That gets a club to January. What happens there is decided by the two slots at 69.2 and 50.6, and nothing on this page suggests either is about to move.